MNP: Last Nail In The Coffin For CDMA?

[Arun 795]

Outlook India - Business

http://business.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?277778

Six months after mobile number portability (MNP) was introduced in India, it is clear that CDMA-based cellular telephony is destined to perish. CDMA, short for code division multiple access, is a mobile technology used by Reliance Communications and Tata Teleservices (TTSL). It rivals GSM (global system of mobile communications), a platform deployed by most Indian operators, including Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Essar, Aircel Cellular and Idea Cellular.

The latest statistics reveal that CDMA operators are bearing the brunt of MNP, which allows users to change operators while retaining their number. According to data from telecom regulator Trai, RCom and TTSL’s CDMA businesses have lost the most users to rival operators. While over 579,000 users have opted out of RCom’s CDMA networks since MNP was introduced in January this year, the number for TTSL stood at 476,600. The gain has been miniscule compared to their loss—36,640 customers for RCom and 29,007 for TTSL.

“MNP has exposed the vulnerability of CDMA operators and turned out to be positive for three operators (Idea, Airtel and Vodafone),” says HSBC Securities and Capital Markets analyst Rajiv Sharma. “The biggest challenge for Tata and Reliance is their low-quality subscriber base, which is more of a structural issue than a question of tactics. The poor subscriber quality is driven by their late entry into GSM spectrum (1800 MHz) and poor investment in the (CDMA) network,” says Sharma.

CDMA subscribers have been loyal to service providers not because of choice but because of the high switching cost. “The technology did not allow a subscriber to change the handset or the service provider. With the introduction of MNP, switching cost has dramatically come down and what we are seeing now is a deluge of subscribers opting out of the CDMA platform,” says Ascentius Consulting Principal Analyst Alok Shende.

Analysts are certain that the CDMA subscriber figures have been going down monthly. Besides, according to the CDMA industry association, Association of Unified Service Providers of India (AUSPI), the average revenue per user for CDMA stood at just Rs 68 in March 2011 compared to Rs 105 for GSM users. From the looks of it, CDMA voice telephony does not have much of a future in India.

[KapilAgrawal 340]

May be CDMA is loosing the end.. But why R-GSM ?? Its all because of the Coverage & their bad CC...

[Rahul Always 87]

Well considering that CDMA networks have been providing much better data services, I think they should provide better data plans for users on mobiles which will ensure that people migrate back to these networks. In the absence of such alluring plans, people find it simply easier to just shift to a GSM network. Another reason, IMHO could be the availability of good OMH handsets in the GSM market, supported by warranty and good service centres, something which is absent as of now in the CDMA domain. The only good handsets available for CDMA users are those which are more of less grey market since most are hacked handsets of US CDMA networks. Addressing these two core issues would make users want to continue using CDMA networks. I have talked to subscribers of most networks and have realised that the kind of network available for CDMA networks simply does not exist as far as GSM is concerned, especially where I am at present. GSM networks are plagued by call drops, call congestion and the likes, something which I personally have not encountered being a prepaid Reliance customer for the past 3-4 years.

To summarise, the overall trend of people using MNP to move out of CDMA networks can be addressed effectively if operators like Reliance and Tata are willing to: -

(a) Provide better data plans for mobiles

(B ) Ensure availability of better handsets (OMH or even network dependent)

All of the above again is just my personal opinion and I do not vouch for 100% accuracy.

[sougatadc 358]

I'm with CDMA because the call quality is much better. The secondary reasons are steady internet on mobile and availability of world-class handsets at much cheaper rates through our beloved forum.

Here at West Bengal the presence of R-CDMA is so low, the port-in or port-out figure will certainly be very less. I don't have any idea on T-CDMA port-in or port-out statistics here. But at today's situation, I'm not thinking about porting out my T-CDMA number to anywhere.

Edited August 1, 2011 by sougatadc

[ni0987 179]

To summarise, the overall trend of people using MNP to move out of CDMA networks can be addressed effectively if operators like Reliance and Tata are willing to: -

(a) Provide better data plans for mobiles

(B ) Ensure availability of better handsets (OMH or even network dependent)

All of the above again is just my personal opinion and I do not vouch for 100% accuracy.

I agree with rahulsid. I have been a GSM user for a long time and started using CDMA much later. I find CDMA superior. In my opinion too, only two things are holding CDMA back, expensive data plans & lack of options in handsets. If CDMA providers offer 1x plans which are comparable to EDGE plans (yes 2Gig under Rs 100/month), they will rock the market.

[thackervijay 16]

well main reasons i see behind many users switching over from their cdma networks mainly from reliance cdma and tata cdma is

1.poor call centres as well as front desk

2.data package available as much better rates on other operators which is main reason

3.availibility of better handsets and easy to switch over to any other operator with different sim

4.usage of different sims on one single handset where cdma handsets used to come locked with operators though now open handsets are too availble but still not as much as compared to gsm market.

5.Yes agree that our forum members who deals in imported handsets provide us some amazing deals but still if you think of how many users actually knows this kind of sellers exists.I myself came to know after i joined this forum.

I guess this are the main reasons which i think are behind companies loss towards their customer base.Also lack of knowledge of their web world employees too is one of the reason.I have seen so many excuses from reliance people who asks users to call here and there and makes them run to get something organised on their service where as compare this with vodafone or airtel and people are much more satisfied with their experience in this regard.

[raghav.cn 8]

Can anyone give MTS port in and port out figures...

[ravi_patent 28]

i really wonder if the reports of these broking firms are worth looking at . just sample this

The technology(CDMA) did not allow a subscriber to change the handset or the service provider

[kshah 452]

Most CDMA handset users believe that changing handset is not possible. Unless new handset is bought from reliance or tata ONLY.

Also CDMA can never ever provide data tariff as good as GSM because of inherent weaknesses. Reliance and Tata both are typical Indian companies whose employees are not empowered to do any thing.

[Karthik R 246]

Can anyone give MTS port in and port out figures...

MTS is the solitary CDMA operator having net figures in the green.

[csmart 472]

all because of handsets and service provider failed highlights the benefits of CDMA over GSM. rather, RCOM & Tata are promoting GSM at cost of CDMA. so when service providers themselves are not interested, consumers don't have choice.

[amitnsonu 72]

Most CDMA handset users believe that changing handset is not possible. Unless new handset is bought from reliance or tata ONLY.

Also CDMA can never ever provide data tariff as good as GSM because of inherent weaknesses. Reliance and Tata both are typical Indian companies whose employees are not empowered to do any thing.

here we are very well aware of various imported handsets but we are only 200-300 (I guess only the no. of rimwebians who r using imported cdma phone)

unfortunately majority of reliance customers is such that they dont know about imported handset, and they also dont know the superiority of cdma over GSM.

on the other side poor condition of RCDMA network is also playing a negative role, at least in my case 3 cdma no. has been ported out because of extra poor network.

despite complaining several times rcom isnt interested in retaining customers.

[Rahul Always 87]

@Amit, it is not just the knowledge of handsets that is going to help. Even before I joined rimweb, I was aware that there are good handsets available, especially in ebay. The issue is, I would not really like to spend close to 15-20 or even 25K on a handset when I am not sure what to do with it if in case it should ever go bad. Most mobile companies do not offer service for imported handsets (I know for sure that the authorised service centre of HTC does not) and in that case, who would ever want to spend so much money without something to fall back upon?

In the case of GSM handsets, companies offer warranties and extended warranties and an assured service support network within India itself. This would make my buy attractive. It is like someone buying an expensive television from the grey market. Unless you personally know the guy, he is going to turn a blind eye to you if you should ever encounter a problem, even the next day for that matter.

So, with MNP, people have found it easy to shift to a GSM network, use a much better and "safer" handset and enjoy the benefits.

Adding to the discussion, I myself use a Samsung M 569. This was a "high end" mobile as far as Reliance was concerned. And to think that it has hardly any decent features at all, it is distressing. I have thought about buying handsets here and am still on the hunt for a decent one. But asking to invest 25K in a handset with zero warranty is a deterrent to a lot of people, especially the common man. And he is the one that dictates the growth or downfall of any company. People would buy good handsets, costing 15K and more but only if they know they would be supported if it should ever fail.

[me_saket 73]

it's not bcoz of data plan or user.

Even most of cdma customer sre so low profile, that they even dont rechage phone with rs 50/month

Thus ARPU od cdma is is just 68. this srpu is atlest mainted by evdo user

[KanagaDeepan 1,084]

Here the technology is NOT AT ALL at fault... It is its users (CDMA operators) and their bl00dy policies... The operators who are correctly making use of it are succeeding... Even in India, MTS is a good example... BSNL, Tata, RCom are just BAD examples...

[rahuldixit2010 13]

If rcom wants to reverse the trend they have to introduce all north American cdma handsets at attractive price. Most of customer does not have knowledge on imported handsets. The data plan of cdma should be at par with gsm counterpart.

Sent from my SPH-D700 using Tapatalk

[thilak.kmb 19]

In my opinion it is the kind of poor support we get from the CDMA operators. You just cannot get anything from the CC. Not that other GSM CCs are better but there is no need for support in GSM. Here in CDMA we have to run from pillar to post to get even the basic need for the subscriber.

In GSM you just put the sim and you can fly. But it is not so here. Only hard core members like some of us will remain. I myself have moved to MTS just because of the high number of CDMA handsets available with me.

Another reason for me to remain with CDMA is THIS FORUM

Edited August 1, 2011 by thilak.kmb

[drmadhu 87]

Main reason is for moving to non availability of good handsets as compare to GSM.

RCOM CC and also webworld employed are not a trained,

In my area each month webworld staff changes frequently.

I am stick with Reliance for RtoR free call my main group has rcom cdma.

[Rahul Always 87]

Well seems most people do have the common opinion regarding non availability of good "registered" handsets as far as RCOM is concerned. I dont think that situation is going to improve anytime soon. Yes forums like this do help but then how many people are actually aware of such forums and more important how many would not think twice before sending money to someone who they do not not at all, in the hope that they would actually get a more than decent handset? Just hope that similar sets start becoming the norm in CDMA operators like MTS/ Reliance/ Tata.

[digitalnirvana 646]

RCom business plans are crap at worst, confusing at best. Without MNP also RCom is laggard. MTS is the only innovative CDMA operator now, I had thought RTel would have to buyout/leverage RCom for voice it would then be great for CDMA, but I think now they will use voice using BWA spectrum so it does look endgame for RCom.

[Jagan T 16]

This is the right post on right time.

CDMA is killed by the Operators + Non availability of Good handsets + High data plans.

In GSM average user just spend around Rs 4000 - 5000, will get a decent handset with gprs/edge facility to check email, browsing and some social networking options, data plans also cost around Rs 150/m.

But in CDMA is there any choice for this type of options?

Still im using my CDMA(very basic phone) with lot of confusion to go for a GSM network. Is there any benefit to stick with CDMA?

[MOBILE FAN 42]

^^^

The only benefit right now is R2R free, provided you have such plans.

However, now I am too considering to make a move. I am strong supporter of RCDMA but now I have an option - A corporate plan which would offer me 1.20Lac seconds/month free on any network all over India including roaming + 300 mb data usage. All for Rs. 399/month.

Corrected for typo.

Edited August 2, 2011 by MOBILE FAN

[kkdeep 6]

which operator?

[jithesh405 4]

With such high rates of port out from CDMA, to GSM technology, do you think that CDMA operators will invest more on implementing user fiendly plans and would they really look at reinvesting on a failiure business model just because the technology is superior. I am sure the port out numbers are really going to hit the revenue and turn over from the CDMA subscriber base. Even the new customer acquisition is also going to take a beating with such reports coming to public.

So is there any merit in sticking to CDMA? As rightly said by fellow Rimians, lot of memebers are still sticking to CDMA due to the benefits what they get from this forum (Atleast me )

Ofcourse Net connect+ and similair broad band plans/ EVDO is keeping the interest in this technology. But how long can Reliance and Tata's maintain the backend infra by these falling numbers & revenue??? Or are they planning how to throw all the remaining customer base and then wind up the business and focus more on GSM base..

I would like to go and meet the market planning and analysis guys in Reliance & TATA, collect thier CV's and ensure that they are getting a job in my competitors business.

So how do you see the future of this CDMA in India?

[Rahul Always 87]

The reason for the initial boom as far as CDMA was concerned was the availability of cheap handsets (Rs. 495 if I remember correctly) along with the DAPO plan which was launched by Reliance to try and swamp the market. They did succeed to some extent but then the stupidity of their franchisees who gave away connections even without verification (considering this was a post paid plan!) ensured that people got connections with fake IDs, ran up huge bills in the succeeding 3-4 months and then simply threw their handsets away. The people who actually faced the brunt of the trouble was those who still stuck with Reliance and continued to be their loyal customers. Their bills were often inflated excessively as the company hoped to recover some amount of their losses. In fact the joke at that time was, if you got a huge bill and shouted at the CC, the bill would immediately be reduced (at times even to whatever YOU said was the correct amount).

With the passing of time and the growth of other mobiles services in the field, Reliance too slowly became more professional in their approach. But the growth of 3G in the GSM field took away the huge advantage that had been till then only with CDMA, namely fast data connection. The growth of 3G starting with BSNL in all circles and other mobile companies in their respective circles kind of sounded the death knell. People realised that they need not stick with outdated CDMA handsets to enjoy super speed data transfers when much better handsets (especially OMH) was available readily and easily in the GSM field.

Now it is up to the CDMA operators to decide how they want to get back their customers. Or have they already given up the battle?

Only time will tell.