TRAI Releases Quarterly Performance Indicators.

[niket 0]

TRAI Releases Quarterly Performance Indicators

Source: Voice&Data, March 08, 2004

The number of mobile subscribers is already higher than the fixed subscribers in the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chandigarh, Vadodra, and Shimla. And by this year, India will have more mobile subscribers than fixed subscribers. This was indicated by the Quarterly Performance Indicators of Telecom Services report, released by TRAI for the quarter ending December 2003. In this period, the mobile industry increased its subscriber base by 23.4 percent, from 23.03 million to 28.44 million. BSNL had 4.93 million subscribers while Reliance had 6.24 million. The ARPU for mobile services decreased from Rs 516 to Rs 457. However, there was an increase in the average minutes of use (MOU), from 298 to 301. The trend appears to be due to the decrease in tariff for mobile services.

The fixed and mobile services subscribers together reached 70.53 million, a growth of 8.9 percent. The subscribers of fixed service grew from 41.38 million to 42.09 million. The quarter added 846 village public telephones (VPT), which now cover more than 85 percent of the total villages; and there were 17.90 lakhs PCOs in the country-a growth of about 8 percent. The subscriber base of Internet users increased by four percent and reached 4.14 million. Also, govt.-owned ISPs took the no.1 and no.2 positions with BSNL reaching 10.04 lakh and MTNL reaching 6.92 lakh Internet subscribers. The report also stated that, 41 percent subscribers had PSUs as their ISP. Internet telephony also gained ground with a logged usage of 20.1 million minutes, a growth of 41.55 percent over the last quarter.

Edited March 11, 2004 by Ashokjp

[niket 0]

India telecoms revenue seen at $25 bln by 2007

Source: Reuters News, March 08, 2004

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Revenues in India's telecoms industry, one of the fastest growing markets globally, will grow to $25 billion by 2007 on soaring demand for wireless services in Asia's third-biggest economy, consultancy firm Ernst & Young said in a study released on Monday.

India has more than 31.4 million wireless users and the number is expected to cross 100 million by 2005 because of low penetration rates as only three in a 100 people own a mobile phone compared with more than 20 in China.

Some of the lowest tariffs in the world and cut-throat competition among carriers to woo users are also fuelling demand in the billion-plus country.

"Tele-density will cross 20 percent in the next five years, beating the government's target by three years," the report said. "Telecom revenue will almost triple to $23-25 billion by 2007 from $9.0 billion in 2002."

With handset costs as low as $50, and dropping, coupled with a huge pent up demand, mobile phones are no longer a luxury in India where even a large number of rickshaw drivers in metropolitan cities sport entry level phones.

"Wireless operators will continue to focus on prepaid products in order to increase the adoption of wireless among the lower middle income and low-income groups," the report said.

The telecoms industry is already the fastest growing component of the Indian economy which is forecast to expand at 8.1 percent in the year to March 2004.

Although growth is at a rapid clip, Ernst & Young said the industry was ripe for consolidation as more than a dozen players, many of them money-losing, are unsustainable in the longer term.

"Wireless is becoming a volume game with thin margins, and therefore, only large players, who possess economies of scale and deep pockets, will be profitable," the report said.

"We expect that eventually only three of four large operators with pan-India operations will dominate while the smaller players will consolidate among themselves or with the larger players.

Some of the leading carriers in India are Bharti Tele-Ventures Ltd , 28 percent owned by Singapore Telecommunications , Reliance Infocomm Ltd, state-run Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd and the Indian mobile unit of Hutchison Whampoa <0013.HK> conglomerate.

Edited March 11, 2004 by Ashokjp

[sunil_jok 2]

look like wht i have been thinking was right.. we are gonna see a lot of mergers...

is reliance gonna do an AT&T. remember AT&T was split up into 4 or so companies because it was too big for its competitors.. and the americans were afraid that the co might use its power to crush its competitors...

in india as per the report only airtel, bsnl, hutch and reliance are gonna last..

im guessing that most of the other providers will be merged with airtel and hutch... bsnl is not gonna be a threat to anyone and neither can anyone threaten it.. its not gonna be a thread because they dont think are not trying to get the market. they are satisfied with what they get...

reliance is gonna gobble up the market because of its wide network, better quality.. low roaming charges and pricing policy... airtel will survive because of its large size and its survival skills. they were not much affected by reliance.. atleast not much.. i dont know much about hutch so iwont comment on it.. but im guessing they have deep pockets...

but if reliance really press the on the pedal, then we would see quite interesting things happening.. lower call rates, and aggressive marketing... will trai be able to keep a rein on reliance???

tata might exist as a niche player.. unless they do a reliance and become more aggressive.. i dont want to underestimate tata... they have been around a long time..

i would prefer if there were only 2 mobile providers... one airtel and the other reliance... bsnl should be merged with airtel... which would give it the advantage of wide coverage.. land line should remain as seperate, with mobile giving free incoming for landline.. no extra charge on landline owners.

with something like that coming there would be a leval playing field for all operators

both relinace and airtel have wide coverage. good quality. and with such wide network airtel will be able to give low roaming charge comparable to reliance... and there should be a telecom authority who will fix equal call charges to both operators.. that way the only question will be do u want cdma with r-world and such features at low cost. or do you want to buy your own handset depending on your need and get a gsm mobile..

land line rate to both would be same local or std depending on the area.. and the same with mobile to land line...

what a beautiful and improbable dream............

[Chirag 5]

its absolutely impossible to create this situation.. and infact if this happens there'll be much more dominance by these two mega players... and we'll all be at their mercy!! I just dont want it!

[sunil_jok 2]

its absolutely impossible to create this situation.. and infact if this happens there'll be much more dominance by these two mega players... and we'll all be at their mercy!! I just dont want it! 

there will be 2 big players but they would have equal power.

the rates would be fixed by a regulatory authority with no flexibility to change it. so equal rate for both.

we wont be at their mercy because they are only providing the service and collecting the money. they wont be able to fix the rates...

[Chirag 5]

there will be 2 big players but they would have equal power.

the rates would be fixed by a regulatory authority with no flexibility to change it. so equal rate for both.

we wont be at their mercy because they are only providing the service and collecting the money. they wont be able to fix the rates...

then such kind of a thing is like having one BSNL itself where the govt or some authority fixes up the tariff!! Thats not what private operators really want !! Thts like getting back to the old system! u can have competition only if there r more players and more tariffs etc etc... ! And only then u can see the rates dropping as we all witnessed in last 2 yrs.. Infact i feel that there should be one more new entrant in the telecom industry... A huge company i mean... We will see the fiercest battle then Is there any one ready to launch one!!

[niket 0]

Sunil And Chirag,

Trai has fixed some rules for mergers..and one is

After merger Their shold be a atlest Three players remain in Circle. so.. ooo..

And chirag u may be right that way we will go to OLD Days.. and As Mukesh Ambani said "In this telecom bussiness Their is a space for Four to Five companys and they all servive" so i think Airtel , BSNL , Relaince any way servive and for TATA and HUTCH i can't tell much.

[Mahidhar 3]

tata is going to give his indicom a boost ... hez spending a lot to get roaming in 11 circles ... something is going to happen in the next 3-4 months ... i remember reading this somewhere. cant underestimate tata !!