Indian Politics - The Dance of Democracy

[city02 63]

that's true;

but over 3/4th of the voters [about 75 - 85%] decide on party first else why would they knowingly vote for criminals?

they just don't know or don't care

even when people choose an individual it is mostly decided on caste / religion / surname etc.

at least for aap, its not based on caste / religion...

In AAP most of the people who have voted does not know who the candidate is ...they have just voted on the name of Arvind Kejriwal....which is little risky...

[silent_god 121]

Just to check if Vote share can also be an yardstick in deciding "who should form govt", I did a small calculation with "hypothetical" situation, like below.

Assume, a city of 1100 people divided into 11 zones & each zone having 100 people.

If vote pattern is like above, by simple maths, we can see that Party B is the winner & have all right to rule. But, if we see vote share %, than it seems Party A is the most people's wish. As out of 100, 57% people want them at helm. However, all these 57% voters are distributed in different area, effectively giving more seats to Party B.

The concept of Majority in democracy doesn't remain valid here !!. Majority of people wants Party A to be in Govt, however, Party B, which is wanted by minority forms government.

Note : A & B are only nomenclature, with no hint to any party. Majority / Minority word is used in Mathematical sense, with no hint to any group.

[KanagaDeepan 1,084]

What happens, in case there is a re-election & again there is a split verdict leading no one to confidently, claim for power ?

After repeated re-election and NO Govt can be formed, then I think the only next possible step is Governor Rule, I guess... It will be relatively more harm (inability to take firm steps) than it seems, imho - but still better than Congress rule as ZERO is a very very big number than MINUS TEN..

But I guess now in this re-election Congress is out of race and the fight is between AAP and BJP only, as many people will try to vote for the winning party and NOT to a definite loser. So I guess this time the result will be clear..

[ACS 130]

Wow, this discussion literally fell silent after AAP decided to take outside support from the Congress..

But like i had mentioned earlier, i always wanted AAP to be in the system to change it.. by hook or crook.

But was disappointed though, as their intention behind taking Congress' support wasn't well articulated by their novice spokespersons. (few, who sprung-up from nowhere)

Also, i was literally shocked to see 25-27yr old MLAs, few of whom have now become ministers of state !!

They should now focus on governance in Delhi, as they have very little time to prove themselves before 2014 general elections.

Hope all goes well.. as this according to me, was our best bet against a corrupt system..

[city02 63]

made a fb post to kehriwal's page a week ago [no reply obviously]:

having read many reports on the impossibility of 50% cuts in power rates, i have a couple of suggestions to implement this goal in a revenue neutral way so that taxpayers are not further burdened with subsidies that are unsustainable.

this will comply with the spirit of the promise but not the letter.
an across the board cut is financially reckless and is an irrational approach to dealing with energy / water conservation.

it makes far more sense to have targeted discounts to the poorest which can be paid by the richest / highest users.

just have volumetric pricing [telescoping] starting at rs. 1 / unit + taxes for usage below 100 kwh / month and increasing to rs. 10 / kwh + tax for over 1000 units.

the vast majority of users will benefit from discounted rates while highest users will pay the highest rates.
ideally there should be no cap on the highest slab - it should just keep increasing indefinitely but that might be politically unfeasible.

why should crorepatis pay the same rates as middle class users?
this will provide financial incentive to install solar / wind power where possible to reduce grid power drawn.

eventually the rates should vary based on demand like its done abroad [peak and off peak times] to further encourage a flattening of power demand spikes during summer / load shedding.

the residential rates should keep increasing until they reach commercial tariffs.
finally, even industrial rates should be escalated based on usage so that SME don't have to pay as much as power hungry enterprises.

what does AAP think?
i've been think about this power / water pricing for many years but never thought it would ever get considered let alone implemented so i never wrote it down until today.

ideally a consumer friendly power tariff should be

1. easy to remember

2. uniform / common for all types of users [residential / commercial / industrial]

3. escalate based on usage so lower consumption gets subsidised by higher etc.

the current tariff [both delhi & mumbai] only satisfies 1 of the 3 requirements above

hopefully mumbai rates will be reduced when aap starts campaigning here

why should mukesh ambani pay lower rates of rs. 5.5 / unit when the rest of us are paying rs. 6.5 [tata] to rs. 9.5 / kwh [reliance]?

his home uses over 1 lakh units monthly and should be charged at commercial rates instead!

[Rahul Always 87]

Having read all the posts above with interest with regard to AAP, I must say that AK, having made his promises, is finding it extremely difficult to implement any of his manifesto issues.

Reduction in Electricity bills may have been achieved but this is through subsidy which means the Elec Co continues to earn what they were earning earlier. The eventual loser is you and me (tax payers) who are subsidising a select few. Why should that happen.

Even with regard to the Water promise, the 700 litre freebie suddenly seems too much.

AK had promised to implement the Jan Lokpal Bill immediately but when confronted with corruption issues against the former CM and Cong members, he suddenly demands proof from BJP. If I remember correctly, this was the same AK who became famous for his shoot (without proof) and scoot.

In the end, he wants to equate Cong and BJP and blame both the parties for the corruption in Delhi, even though it has been the Cong that has been ruling Delhi for past so many years. He has also suddenly developed Prime Ministerial aspirations and wants to project himself as a the only viable alternative to the Cong in centre. His party members have been openly supportive of militancy and seperatists in Kashmir, something that I as a citizen certainly do not wish to hear from my elected members.

Arvind Kejriwal, honestly, you have not managed to convince me of your honesty of purpose. Something seems fishy and more than a bit, at that!

[silent_god 121]

3-4 days is too short period to judge his performance. And impossible to bring major changes in system. He has done a practical job, with respect to commitments he has made. Yes, providing freebies all the time is a bad economics, but then why single out AAP ?? Haven't we had examples ? Like loan waivers to farmers ? Free laptops to few voters ? Free TV's, Free mixture etc etc ? Corporate loan write off by PSU Banks, Direct Funding to Air India, BSNL (white elephants !). Import Duty waiver to few players when they get expensive cars from abroad ?

Freebies are bad economics, but do our politician's have ever realized importance of public money ? Like people making big & large number statues, when roads are yet to be built. When, some one announcing free tablets, when they don't have enough number of schools.

[ACS 130]

Not getting into the economics of it but was hearing the delhi vidhan sabha debate today afternoon - about free water wrongly benefiting only 30% who have water meters. This question was posed by both BJP & Congress.. Why?

Isn't everyone supposed to have legal connections / authorised water meters in the first place? What did congress do since the past 15yrs to ensure everyone has one & there is no water theft in the city.

Better, they also subsidise water meters so that nobody complains.

Edited January 2, 2014 by ACS

[dkaile 1,051]

What a speech Arvind Kejriwal!! - "Mere liye ek chai bechne vala bhi aam aadmi hai aur greater kailash mein rehne vala bhi aam aadmi hai, Agar vo corruption ke khilaaf hai!!" Hats off man. And what a tactical 17 point program. Floored all existing parties.

Now just put this governance train in motion. My full support to you...

[sanju_barc 51]

We need him in centre in future. This is the bare minimum requirement of india

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Tapatalk

[csmart 472]

<p>I would love to see his calculations on providing power subsidy and free water. Also how he intend to generate revenue loss. Also what if auditor finds nothing wrong or tariff not as high as anticipated. Further what steps his planning to curb or reduce power theft which is rampant. </p><p> </p><p>I have lot of expectations from him but also feel that he is party poope for BJP. </p><p> </p><p>Sent from my SCH-R950 using Tapatalk 2</p><p> </p><p> </p>

[silent_god 121]

^^^

I also wonder, what's the plan B, if auditor's don't find anything wrong in discoms's account.

[ACS 130]

Free/subsidised water rightly needs to be given to authorised water meters only.. Arrest leakages & theft.. An honest govt that doesnt demand 30-50% kickbacks from contractors doesnt need to worry about budget issues.. And these Congi/BJP goons talk about tax payers money etc. dont fall for it guys.

And what a super-charged, passionate debate hosted by arnab goswami on the newshour today.. He seemed supremely inspred by Kejriwals speech.

The BJP & Congress spokespersons didnt know how to answer for their action/inaction on Yediyurappa & VBS respectively.

Notice, how well these spokespersons try to dodge direct questions each night!

Today, they fared real bad..

Edited January 2, 2014 by ACS

[city02 63]

that's true of most parties,

crores of people vote for congress or gandhis regardless of the candidate so the 'risk' is similar

i would argue its less risky since at least 1st timers have not yet taken any bribes so are always less corrupt by definition!

In AAP most of the people who have voted does not know who the candidate is ...they have just voted on the name of Arvind Kejriwal....which is little risky...

[kalpeshaparmar 66]

<p>Do anybody doubt that Kejriwal is Plan B of Congress.... </p><p>I doubt sometimes.... No offense to anyone.... I would like to judge him in longtime.... </p>

[KanagaDeepan 1,084]

@kalpesh ji

This can't be avoided... Especially with AK ruling with support of Congress.. Now they can't blame Congress, can't probe the Robert's scam in Noida and other areas. But will blame BJP who ruled few decades back.

IMHO, they should have avoided Congress support and have gone for re-election. I have already said that money for re-election is BS. Stable rule is very important. Without a single doubt, in the re-election the fight will be between BJP and AAP ONLY (as every one knows Cong is a loser). Finally there will be a CLEAR winner and most probably AAP.

Now fighting corruption with the support of the MOST corrupted people (I am NOT saying BJP is clean), will LOOK like DRAMA only, IMHO...

[ACS 130]

^^^ Yes, as i have mentioned earlier, AAP can be held responsible for not articulating their stand, on taking support from Congress.

Anyways, whether they shall fail to take action against corrupt Congressmen OR whether they're plan B of Cong can currently be termed as mere speculation.. i don't wish to believe it, as this is our best hope!

But yes, i can mischievously add that they're also the last hope for Congress during 2014 elections, to keep BJP at bay.

Some kind of extended alliance/support at the national level cannot be ruled out, if AAP indeed manages a large chunk of LS seats.

[city02 63]

while i do want AAP to succeed nationally, i don't think they can replicate the delhi results which were a fluke.

the regional parties will be prepared to attack where congress took them for granted and vastly underestimated their impact

AAP will get about a dozen seats each in the top 6-8 metros but will have a lesser impact in rural areas where voters are paid to show up on election day

educated middle class taxpayers will be more likely to vote for AAP than poor / illiterate citizens which are over 3/4th of the national electoral base

in mumbai the senas will probably start beating up aap supporters if they start making significant headway else they will be ignored

it would be foolish for AK to become a PM candidate without finishing a single term as CM and getting some much needed experience

he should do a 'sonia' and allow aap to nominate another person as PM instead since the odds are highly against success

this would show him as a real leader and not power hungry

[basant.motlani 49]

I am sure that AAP is not going to win a single seat here in chattisgarh because very dense rural areas with illiterate people there. delhi people were covered easily through internet . here even 2g didnt work properly there.

how they would reach each village "IN PERSON".

" JO DIKHTA HAI , WO BIKTA HAI"

[city02 63]

that's such an extreme view that it'll be easy to prove wrong;

i'll predict at least 2-3 seats for CH!

any other guesses for AAP?

I am sure that AAP is not going to win a single seat here in chattisgarh because very dense rural areas with illiterate people there. delhi people were covered easily through internet . here even 2g didnt work properly there.

how they would reach each village "IN PERSON".

" JO DIKHTA HAI , WO BIKTA HAI"

[Siddaga 2]

Who would've thought the arrival of AAP would dampen the chances of Rahul Gandhi to such an extent that his recent coronation would take the hit.. Even Modi is slowly but surely feeling the shivers being away from 24/7 news channels since Delhi elections.. Maybe another 'puppy' remark would push him back into the limelight?

However, fully agree with the criticism aimed at AAP off late.. Chetan Bhagat & many other news editors have made fairly correct observations.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[rajanmehta 4,056]

This black comedy for Arvind Kejriwal is worth watching.

Nayak 2: The Common Man Rises VIDEO

[KanagaDeepan 1,084]

^^^^^

V.Good one Rajan ji... Thanks for sharing...

[ramtech 47]

Good video

[dkaile 1,051]

End of a dream for me. The tamasha has ended. No more AAP for me...