Bharti Races ahead in numbers; Reliance Comm, PSUs lag

[KumaarShah 143]

Bharti races ahead in nos; RCOM, PSUs lagAdd to Clippings

RASHMI PRATAP

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2006 02:15:02 AM]

MUMBAI: In a sector where fortunes are made and lost on the number of subscribers, figures have an interesting story to tell. While largest GSM operator Bharti Airtel has continued to outperform the industry, Anil Ambani’s Reliance Communications (RCOM), Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL) and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam (MTNL) have lost share in the cellular market in the past eight months.

Despite the boom in telecom sector, with monthly subscriber additions crossing 6.5m, some biggies seem to be losing market to smaller operators like Idea Cellular, which was just an eight-circle operation until two months back. As per subscriber figures, on a year to date (YTD) basis (April 1-November 30), the market share for Bharti increased by 1.1% to 22.28%, Idea by 0.75% to 8.72%, and Tata Teleservices by 1.95% to 7.2%.

However, the market share for RCOM decreased by 0.82% to 21.04%, BSNL by 1.65% to 16.91% and MTNL by 0.35% to 1.75%. In the case of RCOM, which offers GSM as well as CDMA-based cellular services, the drop in market share would be even more at 1.3% if only the CDMA user base is taken into consideration.

According to analysts, the decline in RCOM share is largely due to its CDMA platform. “Users are increasingly hesitating in opting for CDMA because of factors like limited handset choice and inflexibility in changing operators,” said an analyst.

Reliance had 20.21m cellular subscribers at March-end while the total user base in the country was 92.5m, a share of nearly 22%. At November-end, the tally was 28.58m RCOM cellular users over a total of 135.84m, giving RCOM 21.04% market share.

When asked about the decline, an RCOM spokesperson said, “The company has seen a significant rise in the new subscriber additions during the last six months, with over a million customers having preferred to come on the Reliance network due to our superior value offerings. The new subscriber additions have more than doubled since April, crossing over 1.35 million subscribers during the month of November.”

The spokesperson added, “RCOM commands over 60% market share of the CDMA wireless industry. Close to 7m new customers have been added by RCOM from June to November ‘06 and monthly subscriber additions have increased by 17.8% over the last quarter.”

Bharti races ahead in nos; RCOM, PSUs lagAdd to Clippings

RASHMI PRATAP

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2006 02:15:02 AM]

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On the other hand, Bharti, which had 21.18% share of the market at the end of March has grabbed 22.28% share with a record 30.3m subscribers at November-end. During November ‘06, Bharti continued to outperform the industry with a share of 24.86% in the total net additions, adding 1.65m users.

Idea, the dark horse of telecom for a long time, also moved up from 7.97% share in March to 8.72% with 11.8m users at November-end. It recorded the highest month-on-month growth of 7.8%, roping in 0.86m subscribers with a presence in just 11 circles.

Link Courtesy:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-808808

Now, what is ADA going to do with the above proof? Still increase rates and rentals and watch an exodus of existing customers? Anyway, he is least bothered about old customers, he gets new customers with lesser frills so why pamper old customers at all. Let them go to hell.

[hritik123 4]

wake up ANIL , even i changed to tata walky from reliance fwp, bye bye anil

[anujit 0]

I don't think these stats mean anything. They're comparing market share in a sector thats growing a break neck speed. It is quite possible that the larger companies will lose out on % market share while posting massive growth (in actual numbers). It's a standard phenomenon that happens anywhere in the world. Big deal.

But yes - According to analysts, the decline in RCOM share is largely due to its CDMA platform. “Users are increasingly hesitating in opting for CDMA because of factors like limited handset choice and inflexibility in changing operators,” said an analyst. - is always going to be a big big challenge.

[abhay 0]

India is adding one mobile phone user every second

India's mobile phone industry is expanding exponentially, adding one new subscriber every second to take the total telephone subscriber base to 250 million by 2007, Communications and IT Minister Dayanidhi Maran said here Thursday.

'India's telecommunications industry is on a very high growth trajectory. We have already crossed the 185 million subscribers mark, and by 2007 India will have 250 million phone subscribers,' the minister said at India Telecom 2006, inaugurated by President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam at the Pragati Maidan fairground here.

'Our mobile subscriber base is increasing phenomenally each year, adding almost six million new subscribers a month, which means one customer is added every second,' Maran told the conference attended by the who's who of Indian telecom.

The conference is being organised by Ministry for Communications and Information Technology, in association with Federation of Indian Chambers for Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and Telecom Equipment Manufacturers Association (TEMA).

Over 200 companies are participating in the exposition, including biggies like Bharti Airtel Limited, BSNL, C-Dot, Hutchison Essar Mobile Services Ltd, COAI, Qualcomm India Pvt Ltd and Reliance Communication Ltd.

Among the international participants are various small and medium telecom companies from Canada, China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Italy, Taiwan, South Korea and the United States.

'By 2010, India will have more than 500 million mobile subscribers from the current base which is more than 140 million,' Maran said.

'This year we have already had investments of up to $17 billion in IT and telecom, of which $1.5 billion have been in telecom alone,' the minister said.

He said an investment of $2 billion had been made in telecom manufacturing only. 'And more investments are on the anvil.'

However, Maran expressed concern over slow growth of broadband connectivity and said that one million more subscribers would be added to the current three million by the end of this fiscal.

http://www.dailyindia.com/show/92980.php/I...er-every-second

India will have 250 mn phones by 2007: Maran

India will have 250 million telephone subscribers by 2007 from the current 185 million, Minister for Communications and Information Technology Dayanidhi Maran said here Thursday.

'India's telecommunications industry is on a very high growth trajectory. We have already crossed the 185 million subscribers mark, and by 2007 India will have 250 million phone subscribers,' the minister said at India Telecom 2006, inaugurated by President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam at the Pragati Maidan here.

'Our mobile subscriber base is increasing phenomenally each year, adding almost six million new subscribers a month, which means one customer is added every second,' Maran told the conference attended by the who's who of the Indian telecom.

The conference, which was inaugurated by President A.P.J. Kalam, is being organised by Ministry for Communications and Information Technology, in association with Federation of Indian Chambers for Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and Telecom Equipment Manufacturers Association (TEMA).

Over 200 companies are participating in the exposition, including biggies like Bharti Airtel Limited, BSNL, C-Dot, Hutchison Essar Mobile Services Ltd, COAI, Qualcomm India Pvt Ltd and Reliance Communication Ltd.

Among the international participants are various small and medium telecom companies from Canada, China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Italy, Taiwan, South Korea and US.

'By 2010, India will have more than 500 million mobile subscribers from the current base which is more than 140 million,' Maran said.

'This year we have already had investments of up to $17 billion in IT and telecom, of which $1.5 billion have been in telecom alone,' the minister said.

He said an investment of $2 billion had been made in telecom manufacturing only. 'And more investments are on the anvil.'

However, Maran expressed concern over slow growth of broadband connectivity and said that one million more subscribers would be added to the current three million by the end of this fiscal.

http://www.indiaprwire.com/businessnews/20061214/10558.htm

Edited December 14, 2006 by abhay

[KumaarShah 143]

I agree that the growth has been lost because of the non availability of good handsets, and inflexibility to change operators. But the drop cannot be solely due to these reasons. It is also due to the increasing tendency of Reliance to remove all freebies and sops (in form of R2R, etc) charging roaming rentals, etc etc.

If people have to pay similar charges on Reliance, they can as well go with GSM. Thats why, the growth is retarded.

[city02 63]

'By 2010, India will have more than 500 million mobile subscribers from the current base which is more than 140 million,' Maran said.

The 140 M base for India is totally hyped.

Once independent audits are mandated for ACTIVE subs, I think it will fall to around 100-125 M nationally.

The telecom minister had publicly admitted about 7-8% over statement but I feel the reality is around 10-20% inflation.

When we figure out how to count UNIQUE subs, it will fall further to around 75-100 M domestically.

The least inflated counts are for landlines, followed by postpaid mobiles.

Prepaid has max 'fudging' of numbers.

We are not alone when it comes to hyping our base (South Africa had similar issues):

http://www.ictworld.co.za/EditorialEdit.as...itorialID=20948

SA mobile subscriber base overstated

Date: December 2004

Issue: One Hundred and fourteen (08/11/04 - 13/11/04) (ICT World) Category: Local News

SA’s mobile subscriber base has been routinely overstated by at least 20%, and sometimes more, over the last five years, according to research findings released today.

According to "The State of the Mobile and Wireless Services industry in SA 2005", produced by World Wide Worx, the size of the local mobile subscriber market, widely assumed to have reached the 18m mark in March, was in fact only around 14,5m. The 20m mark, thought to have been passed at the end of September, will not be breached until well into 2005.

"It is still an astonishingly successful industry, but that success can be undermined by over-hyping it," says Arthur Goldstuck, MD of World Wide Worx, who led the research project.

The study is the first of a six-phase World Wide Worx research project entitled "Mobility 2005", the broadest study yet of mobile and wireless technologies in SA.

The first three phases are sponsored by mobile network Cell C and a new mobile strategy think-tank, the Mobile Institute. The research is designed to produce a better understanding of the industry, and covers cellular, wireless and radio technologies, as well as mobile commerce.

The next three phases, sponsored by FNB and Sentech, will include market research among corporations, small and medium enterprises, and consumers.

The first phase of the study shows that there has been widespread controversy within the industry around the question of what constitutes "active customers".

Most networks use the definition of "Active 3", for subscribers who have generated activity on the network in the past three-month period. However, networks have been "fluid" in their choice of definition, hopping between Active 3, Active 6 (subscribers who have been active in the past 6 months), Active 7, and even Active 9.

"The networks are very honest about their churn rates, as well as their definitions of active customers, but industry observers and analysts tend to ignore these for the sake of talking up the numbers," says Goldstuck. "At the same time, though, we have also identified numerous other factors behind the over-counting - by both networks and analysts."

Subscriber numbers are distorted because:

• Pre-paid starter packs cause churn through "arbitrage" - buyers spot the discount between the cost of starter packs and the cost of recharging existing accounts. Once they use up the airtime on such starter packs, they discard them - but are still counted as active subscribers;
  
• Active contract subscribers purchase new contracts when they spot a bargain in the price of a contract versus the combination of free phone and free gift, such as shopping vouchers or TV sets - they continue to use their existing contracts, but are counted twice by the networks;
  
• The top echelon of prepaid customers tends to match the handset upgrade behaviour of contract customers, who upgrade their phones every two years. These upper-income pre-paid customers prefer to keep their old numbers, but take out new pre-paid bundles every time they want an upgrade, and are again counted twice by the networks. As many as a million "new customers" a year may already be subscribers;
  
• Analysis of churn patterns - as many as 45% of pre-paid customers change or drop networks every year - indicate that many pre-paid subscribers are counted on more than one network during their network hops;
  
• Retailers believe that a high proportion of phones are being bought by foreign visitors, especially from other countries in Africa – many tourists routinely purchase a handset with pre-paid airtime when they arrive;
  
• According to a recent World Wide Worx research report on Smart Cards, around 10m new SIM cards for cellphones were expected to be issued in 2004 – three times the amount of new subscribers expected by the networks. This alone indicates huge movement between and within networks, and casts significant doubt on how many of the new subscribers really are “new”.
  

Interviews with representatives of the mobile networks - all three mobile networks cooperated with the research - suggest that these findings are not seen as all bad news for the industry.

Says Jonathan Newman, head of strategy at Cell C: "The number shows that there is in fact more growth to be had out of the market before it reaches saturation."

The total market potential continues to be estimated at between 26m and 33m mobile subscribers, depending on whether industry representatives are making conservative or aggressive forecasts.

"For the market to continue growing at its present rate depends on economic factors, such as SA maintaining the present Rand/Dollar environment, favourable inflation and economic growth, and market factors, such as the networks introducing very low denomination recharge vouchers," says Tristao Abro, head of Segment Marketing at Cell C. "Cellphone innovations per se will not drive growth in users, but are more about increasing penetration among existing subscribers," he adds. The results of phase two of the research, into mobile commerce in SA, will be released shortly.

[compenn 0]

Its not just because of CDMA platform but also because of the WORST customer care of reliance. I'm using 2 GSM postpaid connections with 1000 mins onnet local and 1000 mins onnet std free on each connection. Also 1000 sms free. i dont think reliance can beat that..... I also dumped my DAPO long time back... bye bye Anil, u made a mistake taking Rel Comm u shud have left it with Mukesh and taken some other company.

[hritik123 4]

the only reason me stuck wit reliance is that i have taken nokia 6235 threee month back and is useless in any other network